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Assessing the Supply and Demand for Scientists and Technologists in Europe

Pearson R, Jagger N, Connor H, Perryman S with de Grip A, Marey P, Corvers F
Report 377, Institute for Employment Studies, March 2001

co-researched with ROA, Netherlands

This report, which is based on a study carried out by IES and ROA for the Research Directorate General of the European Commission, reviews the available evidence on the supply and demand for professional scientists and technologists (S&Ts) in Europe. It was recognised at the outset that it is inherently difficult task, given the rapid rate of change, the diversity across occupations, countries, and their labour markets, and the inadequacy of existing data sources. The picture is also often confused by some widely publicised ad hoc studies, eg on the demand for IT skills, which are based on poor research and may have been undertaken for publicity or ‘lobbying’ purposes to get more government resources spent on training. A subsidiary objective therefore was to explore what could be achieved, and where data sources might be improved to add value to policy making in this challenging area.

Scientists and technologists in Europe

The European labour market for S&Ts is not homogeneous and is fast changing. It is segmented by country and locality, and by sector, occupation and discipline. Employer demand is influenced by many factors, including the national and international economic climate, historic patterns of national development and structural change, and corporate competitiveness, both in the commercial market and in the labour market.

There were over 28.5 million graduates across all disciplines, aged 25-59 and employed in the EU in 1997: 19 per cent of the employed population. The largest numbers were in Germany (9.3 million), the UK (6.5m) and France (5.2m). Graduates accounted for more than one in four of the working population in Belgium, Denmark and Sweden, but less than one in ten in Austria and Italy.

Fig. 1: Graduates as a percentage of employed population, aged 25 to 59 (1997)

Source: IES/Eurostat (1998) Labour Force Survey 1997 results

There had been a rapid growth in the number of research scientists and engineers (RSEs), just over 800,000 in 1995, up from 500,000 a decade earlier. The largest numbers were again in Germany, France and the UK, which accounted for almost two-thirds of the EU total.

Fig. 2: Research scientists and engineers per 1,000 graduates (1997)

Source: Eurostat (1998) Labour Force Survey 1997 results and Eurostat (1999) Research and Development Statistics Annual Statistics 1998, OECD (1999) Main Science and Technology Indicators

Only one in five RSEs in the surveyed R&D establishments were women. These employers increasingly required their RSEs to have good technical and personal skills in areas such as communication, adaptability, problem solving and business awareness. They used a wide range of recruitment sources but still mostly recruited from within their own countries, and there was no evidence of significant net outflows from the EU.

The supply of scientists and technologists

There is great diversity of educational provision and participation across Europe, with variation in the content, structure and length of courses, the level of autonomy, and the responsiveness of higher education to the needs of industry. Many parts of higher education are in a state of flux. Higher education has expanded significantly in most EU countries over the last decade, with increased participation rates and policies to widen access to non-traditional students, particularly among older age groups. Dropout rates are, however, high: over 50 per cent in Italy and Portugal but with a low of under 20 per cent in the UK. Nevertheless, the numbers graduating have grown dramatically over the last decade to nearly 2 million per annum, with particular growth in France, Ireland and the UK, where the annual numbers graduating have nearly trebled. Ireland, Finland and the UK have the highest graduation rates relative to population size, Austria, Greece, Italy and Portugal the lowest. Women now account for more than half of those graduating in most countries.

The natural sciences account for up to 18 per cent of those graduating, Ireland and France having the largest shares of natural scientists, while engineering and technologists account for eight to a high of 24 per cent in Germany, Finland and Denmark.

Overall, initial job search has been taking longer and there has been great variation between countries in the flexibility of links between occupational destinations and graduates’ fields of study. For example, a large proportion of ‘graduate jobs’ are open to graduates of any discipline in Ireland and the UK, therefore many scientists and technologists enter non-scientific and technological occupations such as finance and marketing. In many countries there is a strong relationship between subject and occupation with, for example, only those with finance degrees entering finance careers. While initial unemployment rates vary with the economic cycle, ten per cent or more were still unemployed six months after graduation. IT specialists found it easiest to find employment, with wide variations among the other S&T disciplines and between countries, as below.

Meeting employer demand for skills

The pace of economic and technological change is such that the future cannot be forecast with any reliability. Nevertheless, individuals, education and training providers, employers and policy makers have to make assumptions when making investment and strategic choices about education, training and employment. As change accelerates, the demand for science and technology will continue to develop and fragment, with a growing emphasis being placed on the need for scientists and technologists to have good ‘personal’ skills alongside their scientific skills and competencies.

Despite some unsubstantiated claims, there were no widespread quantitative shortages of scientists and technologists in the late 1990s.

There were, however, specific problems, most notably in IT and communications. Here there has been a rapid expansion in demand across all sectors, accelerated by the greater use of the internet and telecoms, and in the late 1990s by the introduction of the Euro and concerns about Y2K problems. There were also problems among R&D employers who sought people who had both good technical and good personal skills, especially leadership, problem solving and project management skills. Some of the reported recruitment problems related more to the unattractiveness of an employer’s ‘offer’, poor salaries, or an over-specificity of requirements. These problems were more prevalent for HE and government R&D centres than in the private sector, especially in the case of experienced RSEs.

The pilot econometric modelling exercise assessed trends in very broad occupational groups. It suggested that the overall supply of natural scientists, and of engineers and technologists was expected to exceed employer needs under scenarios relating to both high and low economic growth and human capital investment. Problems were, however, projected at a national level for natural scientists in Denmark, Germany and the Netherlands, unless significant labour market adjustments take place.

But are there too many scientists and technologists?

It was, however, apparent that there was a problem of an over-supply of some S&T graduates for the available job openings. In a number of countries, unemployment among newly qualifying scientists and technologists has remained relatively high, particularly in the life sciences, and many graduates have had problems in finding suitable jobs, a situation relatively unknown in previous decades. Under-employment and under-utilisation of skills was also found, particularly relating to both engineers and life science graduates in Germany, Netherlands, Sweden and the UK, and at doctorate level in France. The modelling work also forecast an excess aggregate supply over demand in many countries under certain scenarios, affecting both natural scientists, and engineering and technologists.

Minimising future skill imbalances

National and European policies aimed at knowledge-intensive economic growth need to be accompanied by policies aimed at improving the skills base. As the pace of change accelerates, assessing future skill needs and developing appropriate policy responses becomes ever more problematic and is further compounded by the potentially contradictory requirements for both further specialisation, and a multidisciplinary approach in science and technology. Imbalances can be minimised if universities and training institutions build better contacts with employers. In this way they can better understand the changing needs of the 21st century workplace, and develop curricula and teaching methods that are responsive to these needs, both technical and ‘personal’. This is not to argue that all courses should become more vocational, rather that providers should be aware of needs and incorporate relevant elements in courses. They should also collaborate more, regionally, nationally and internationally, to seek to focus provision better, and ensure that students have access to expensive state of the art equipment.

Employers need to assess better their longer-term needs for skills, and communicate these to would-be students, universities and training providers. Greater attention also needs to be given to their recruitment, employment and staff development strategies, and flexibility in areas such as wages, working conditions, training and retraining, and in their use of scarce skills.

Public policy and other institutions need to encourage further investment in education, training and retraining, and improved information to help focus the choices and activities of employers, universities and training providers, and careers advice for individuals. They also need to ensure that barriers to the effective employment and utilisation of scientists and technologists are minimised, mobility and flexibility is encouraged, and good practice is widely understood and implemented.

Finally, individuals need to make well informed choices and to be aware of emerging trends and needs and the relative costs and benefits of alternative education, training, employment and career strategies.

To help this, the information base needs to be improved about the flow of potential scientists and technologists into and out of higher education (the ‘S&T pipeline’); about employers’ needs, recruitment and utilisation of S&Ts. It needs to include their earnings, careers, and mobility between organisations, sectors, regions and countries, and into and out of the EU, along with well disseminated examples of good practice towards staff training, development, employment and utilisation. A significant first step would be to build on this research and to establish an EU S&T Skills Observatory. This could co-ordinate inputs from experts in each Member State which in turn would draw off local information sources in a structured way. Such an S&T Skills Observatory could monitor trends across the EU, undertake comparative analysis, and prepare regular reports relating to supply, demand trends and imbalances, and advise on future information needs.

The study

The study was funded by the EC and undertaken over the period 1997-99. It included a detailed review of national and international sources, contact with over 100 international and national experts; information about the recruitment and employment from 210 R&D establishments across Europe; and a pilot econometric modelling exercise. As many of the available data sets refer to the mid and late 1990s, when much of Europe was in recession, this needs to be borne in mind when reading this report.

ROA (Research Centre for Education and the Labour Market)

Assessing the Supply and Demand for Scientists and Technologists in Europe, Pearson R, Jagger N, Connor H, Perryman S with de Grip A, Marey P, Corvers F. Report 377, Institute for Employment Studies, 2001.
ISBN: 978-1-85184-306-0. £40.00. [PDF price: £10.00]

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