The potential health implications of a changing labour market

A briefing for the Commission for Healthier Working Lives

The UK faces a major challenge with respect to work and health. Recognising record levels of economic inactivity driven by poor health, the UK government has a policy programme of welfare reform and increased employment support, while commissioning an independent review of the role of employers with the Keep Britain Working Review. Echoing the conclusions of the Commission for Healthier Working Lives, the discovery phase of the review has identified the importance of prevention, retention, early intervention and rapid rehabilitation in the workplace.

This briefing paper identifies occupations, industries and populations with the greatest health risks in the next decade using labour market projections, highlighting where action needs to be targeted. Based on the analysis, it is anticipated that in 2035 there could be a 5% increase in cases of work-related ill-health across occupations (compared with a 4% increase in the total number of jobs) costing the economy an additional £1bn compared with 2025. This cost comes from a greater number of working-days lost.

By 2035, it is estimated that there will be an additional 1.3 million days lost per year due to work-related ill-health. While this increase is largely driven by a higher overall number of jobs, 16% of the projected rise is because of a compositional shift towards more health-harming jobs in the economy.

The labour market projections anticipate that the growth in jobs between 2025 and 2035 will be concentrated in high skilled, white collar, non-manual work. The largest growth is anticipated in ‘business, media and other public service professionals’. Across regions, London is expected to have the highest percentage increase in cases of work-related ill-health between 2025 and 2035 as a result of high overall job growth, predominantly in these ‘white-collar’ sectors.

The additional burden of work-related ill-health is anticipated to fall disproportionately on women because of growth in occupations such as health and personal service roles, where women are expected to form the majority of the workforce. These occupations have high prevalence rates of work-related ill-health, in particular work-related stress, depression and anxiety, driven by an imbalance between work demands and the available resources to meet them.

The analysis presented in this paper is illustrative, pointing to the health consequences of the UK government’s central scenario of the changing composition of the labour market in the next decade. The purpose is to stimulate debate and hopefully encourage further, targeted action on improving health and wellbeing at work.